Sebastian points to a recent news report that Ruger and Smith & Wesson stocks took a hit yesterday on an analyst report predicting that the surge in new gun sales has peaked. Anecdotally, I think the analyst report is correct. I'm seeing more guns, especially those scary black rifles, in stock in the stores and online. Full MSRP is still common, but as the manufacturers are catching up I'm seeing fewer stores able to charge above MSRP.
However, folks should look for an "echo" of the gun buying boom: All the people who've been waiting out the market until the prices drop and popular guns become available again. I think there are lots of gunnies who've put off purchases and who will be ready to pounce as availability increases and prices moderate a bit (but certainly not all the way back down to pre-election levels). I personally don't think the market will catch up until Q4.
Also, with the recent Heller decision by the Supreme Court, more people are going to be able to both legally own guns and carry them, which will provide a small increase in demand as incorporation gets settled throughout this year and next.
Note that this applies only to gun prices. Ammo prices will remain high as people continue to hoard ammo and shoot their new guns. There's both a permanent increase in the demand for ammo, and barring a global economic collapse, a permanent increase in the cost of the raw materials.
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